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VLSI ASTRIA / SEMICONDUCTOR INTELLIGENCE AGENT

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Explore product prices, forecasts, foundry customers and manufacturing mix. Inspect reported facts, reproducible calculations and explicit model assumptions.

ASTRIA research release · 2026-09-09
150Product & quote identities
49Dated numeric references
4 + 8Forecast series + density scenarios
15Foundry–product evidence records

Research and estimates by VLSI ASTRIA: AI-assisted public-source research, reproducible statistical models and explicit assumptions. Original publisher facts remain separately attributed. Forecasts are experimental.

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NAND 128Gb Die

model-estimate

Government-reported fixed-price reference · Native month frequency · Latest observed: 2026-07 · Evaluated: 2026-09-09 UTC

Selected model: no change · 19 observations · publication lag aware latest vintage

0.022.745.32025-012026-072026-10USD / chip
Blue: reported referenceGold dashed: model estimateGold range: horizon-specific empirical residual band, when available
Model output · USD / chip
PeriodEstimateEmpirical rangeHorizon residualsOutput type
2026-0830.05Not enough matched residuals0Completed-period estimate
2026-0930.0535.61–40.475Current-period estimate
2026-1030.05Not enough matched residuals1Future forecast
Compare chronological model-selection errors
Errors on model-selection holdouts; these are not an untouched validation set
CandidateHoldoutsMAERMSEMAPE
no change67.667.9836.27%
recent log drift611.1315.2143.71%
damped log trend68.099.6734.03%

Backtest and final training exclude observations not published by the applicable date, but source values are latest vintages and may contain later revisions. Model selection uses chronological training holdouts and is not independent validation. Each forecast horizon needs at least five matching horizon residuals for an empirical band; unavailable horizons show no band.

Input observations and source lineage
PeriodObserved valuePublishedSource
2025-012.182025-07-01Official source ↗
2025-022.292025-07-01Official source ↗
2025-032.512025-07-01Official source ↗
2025-042.792025-07-01Official source ↗
2025-052.922025-07-01Official source ↗
2025-063.122025-07-01Official source ↗
2025-073.402025-09-01Official source ↗
2025-083.402025-09-01Official source ↗
2025-093.792025-10-01Official source ↗
2025-104.352025-12-01Official source ↗
2025-115.192025-12-01Official source ↗
2025-125.742026-01-01Official source ↗
2026-019.462026-02-12Official source ↗
2026-0212.702026-03-12Official source ↗
2026-0317.702026-04-14Official source ↗
2026-0424.202026-05-14Official source ↗
2026-0526.512026-08-01Official source ↗
2026-0628.822026-08-01Official source ↗
2026-0730.052026-08-01Official source ↗

Missing-density scenarios

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These are assumption-based sensitivity calculations. They are not manufacturer quotes or calibrated market forecasts. The defaults are illustrative VLSI ASTRIA assumptions; no cross-density price validation has been completed.

Adjust a generic product scenario

Anchor: DDR4 8Gb Die · 2026-07 · 24.00 USD / chip. Official anchor ↗

assumption-scenario

DDR4 4Gb generic die · 2026-07 basis

8.36–16.54

USD / chip · Central assumption: 12.00

Same-generation generic die assumption only; cell architecture, speed grade, yield, supplier premium and product availability are not identified. This is not an observed product quote or a calibrated market forecast.

Default scenario coverage

P(target) = P(anchor) × density ratio ^ elasticity × premium

Illustrative defaults · July 2026 anchor · USD / generic die
TargetLowCentralHigh
DDR4 4Gb generic die8.3612.0016.54
DDR4 16Gb generic die33.4348.0066.17
DDR5 8Gb generic die15.6722.5031.01
DDR5 24Gb generic die49.7967.5087.84
DDR5 32Gb generic die62.6890.00124.06
NAND 64Gb generic die10.4615.0320.71
NAND 256Gb generic die41.8660.1082.84
NAND 512Gb generic die72.88120.20190.33

HBM, graphics DRAM, mobile DRAM and finished SSDs need their own data and cost structure. The model does not silently assign these commodity-die scenarios to those products.

Disclosure

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures and factual statements are based on publicly available sources, including company filings, news reports, and market research, and may contain errors in the source material or in the preparation of this article. The author may own shares in companies mentioned. All investment decisions and their outcomes are the reader's responsibility.