{"meta":{"version":"2026-09-09.research-1","preparedAt":"2026-09-09","numericalClasses":["reported","derived","model-estimate","assumption-scenario","unavailable"],"publicBoundary":"Public references, independently calculated estimates and explicit scenario assumptions. Commercial price-board histories and private operational methods are not redistributed.","refresh":"This release uses dated, reviewed snapshots. Models recalculate from the bundled validated inputs; this is not a live ingestion feed.","modelPromotion":"A candidate can be described as improved only after chronological out-of-sample validation against a declared baseline, with errors, horizon, sample size and interval coverage published. No superiority over commercial providers is claimed.","researchAgent":{"name":"VLSI ASTRIA","title":"Semiconductor Intelligence Agent","version":"2026.09","attribution":"Research & model estimates by VLSI ASTRIA","scope":"AI-assisted research with reproducible statistical models and explicit scenario assumptions. Publisher facts retain their original source. Experimental forecasts are not independently validated or guaranteed."},"evaluatedAt":"2026-09-09T16:22:30.054Z","productCount":150,"pricedReferenceCount":49,"forecastSeriesCount":4,"densityScenarioCount":8,"relationshipCount":15,"mixBucketCount":29,"foundryCount":8},"view":"forecasts","count":4,"records":[{"id":"ddr4-8gb-die","label":"DDR4 8Gb Die","unit":"USD / chip","basis":"Government-reported fixed-price reference","sources":[{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-01","period":"2025-01","value":1.35,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-01:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-02","period":"2025-02","value":1.35,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-02:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-03","period":"2025-03","value":1.35,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-03:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-04","period":"2025-04","value":1.65,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-04:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-05","period":"2025-05","value":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-05:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-06","period":"2025-06","value":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-06:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-07","period":"2025-07","value":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-07:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170869/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-08","period":"2025-08","value":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-08:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170869/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-09","period":"2025-09","value":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-sep-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-09:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171048/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-10","period":"2025-10","value":7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-oct-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-10:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171276/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-11","period":"2025-11","value":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-oct-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-11:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171276/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2025-12","period":"2025-12","value":9.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-dec-2025:ddr4-8gb-die:2025-12:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171403/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-01","period":"2026-01","value":11.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-12","revisionId":"motir-ict-jan-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-01:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171518/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-02","period":"2026-02","value":13,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","revisionId":"motir-ict-feb-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-02:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171585/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-03","period":"2026-03","value":13,"publicationDate":"2026-04-14","revisionId":"motir-ict-mar-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-03:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171725/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-04","period":"2026-04","value":16,"publicationDate":"2026-05-14","revisionId":"motir-ict-apr-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-04:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171830/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-05","period":"2026-05","value":20,"publicationDate":"2026-06-15","revisionId":"motir-ict-may-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-05:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171923/view"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-06","period":"2026-06","value":21,"publicationDate":"2026-07-15","revisionId":"k-knowledge-ict-jun-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-06:v1","sourceUrl":"https://k-knowledge.kr/srch/read.jsp?id=286511301"},{"observationId":"ddr4-8gb-die-2026-07","period":"2026-07","value":24,"publicationDate":"2026-08-14","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2026:ddr4-8gb-die:2026-07:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172107/view"}],"result":{"state":"available","reason":null,"modelVersion":"semiconductor-estimation-1","horizon":3,"grain":"month","inputs":{"observationCount":19,"firstPeriod":"2025-01","lastPeriod":"2026-07","asOf":"2026-09-09T16:22:30.054Z","maxStalenessDays":93,"minimumObservationCount":12,"minimumHoldoutCount":6},"metrics":[{"model":"no_change","holdoutCount":6,"mae":4.033333333333333,"rmse":4.376832949367232,"mapePercent":22.371031746031747},{"model":"recent_log_drift","holdoutCount":6,"mae":2.418837598237987,"rmse":3.136156111689981,"mapePercent":12.8430390853476},{"model":"damped_log_trend","holdoutCount":6,"mae":2.1939994873832456,"rmse":2.6541557592960707,"mapePercent":11.726039197126306}],"evaluation":"publication_lag_aware_latest_vintage","selectionEvidence":"chronological-model-selection-on-training-holdouts-not-independent-validation","selectedModel":"damped_log_trend","forecasts":[{"period":"2026-08","value":27.428571428571427,"lower":null,"upper":null,"status":"nowcast_completed_missing_period","bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_horizon_residuals","horizonResidualCount":0},{"period":"2026-09","value":30.116018244933592,"lower":27.01360193874558,"upper":32.75585711958918,"status":"nowcast_current_period","bandState":"available_limited_sample","horizonResidualCount":6},{"period":"2026-10","value":32.1524155045482,"lower":null,"upper":null,"status":"forecast","bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_horizon_residuals","horizonResidualCount":0}],"bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_residuals","caveat":"Backtest and final training exclude observations not published by the applicable date, but source values are latest vintages and may contain later revisions. Model selection uses chronological training holdouts and is not independent validation. Each forecast horizon needs at least five matching horizon residuals for an empirical band; unavailable horizons show no band."},"researchAgent":"VLSI ASTRIA"},{"id":"nand-128gb-die","label":"NAND 128Gb Die","unit":"USD / chip","basis":"Government-reported fixed-price reference","sources":[{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-01","period":"2025-01","value":2.18,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-01:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-02","period":"2025-02","value":2.29,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-02:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-03","period":"2025-03","value":2.51,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-03:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-04","period":"2025-04","value":2.79,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-04:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-05","period":"2025-05","value":2.92,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-05:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-06","period":"2025-06","value":3.12,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-06:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-07","period":"2025-07","value":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-07:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170869/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-08","period":"2025-08","value":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-08:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170869/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-09","period":"2025-09","value":3.79,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-sep-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-09:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171048/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-10","period":"2025-10","value":4.35,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-oct-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-10:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171276/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-11","period":"2025-11","value":5.19,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-oct-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-11:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171276/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2025-12","period":"2025-12","value":5.74,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-dec-2025:nand-128gb-die:2025-12:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171403/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-01","period":"2026-01","value":9.46,"publicationDate":"2026-02-12","revisionId":"motir-ict-jan-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-01:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171518/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-02","period":"2026-02","value":12.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-12","revisionId":"motir-ict-feb-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-02:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171585/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-03","period":"2026-03","value":17.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-14","revisionId":"motir-ict-mar-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-03:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171725/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-04","period":"2026-04","value":24.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-14","revisionId":"motir-ict-apr-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-04:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171830/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-05","period":"2026-05","value":26.51,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","revisionId":"motir-trade-jul-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-05:v2","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172077/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-06","period":"2026-06","value":28.82,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","revisionId":"motir-trade-jul-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-06:v2","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172077/view"},{"observationId":"nand-128gb-die-2026-07","period":"2026-07","value":30.05,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","revisionId":"motir-trade-jul-2026:nand-128gb-die:2026-07:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172077/view"}],"result":{"state":"available","reason":null,"modelVersion":"semiconductor-estimation-1","horizon":3,"grain":"month","inputs":{"observationCount":19,"firstPeriod":"2025-01","lastPeriod":"2026-07","asOf":"2026-09-09T16:22:30.054Z","maxStalenessDays":93,"minimumObservationCount":12,"minimumHoldoutCount":6},"metrics":[{"model":"no_change","holdoutCount":6,"mae":7.663333333333333,"rmse":7.976759993882228,"mapePercent":36.2680523114609},{"model":"recent_log_drift","holdoutCount":6,"mae":11.128573937261217,"rmse":15.21395588821733,"mapePercent":43.7126265944515},{"model":"damped_log_trend","holdoutCount":6,"mae":8.092425485843533,"rmse":9.670626937142119,"mapePercent":34.03210679136795}],"evaluation":"publication_lag_aware_latest_vintage","selectionEvidence":"chronological-model-selection-on-training-holdouts-not-independent-validation","selectedModel":"no_change","forecasts":[{"period":"2026-08","value":30.05,"lower":null,"upper":null,"status":"nowcast_completed_missing_period","bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_horizon_residuals","horizonResidualCount":0},{"period":"2026-09","value":30.05,"lower":35.606,"upper":40.474000000000004,"status":"nowcast_current_period","bandState":"available_limited_sample","horizonResidualCount":5},{"period":"2026-10","value":30.05,"lower":null,"upper":null,"status":"forecast","bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_horizon_residuals","horizonResidualCount":1}],"bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_residuals","caveat":"Backtest and final training exclude observations not published by the applicable date, but source values are latest vintages and may contain later revisions. Model selection uses chronological training holdouts and is not independent validation. Each forecast horizon needs at least five matching horizon residuals for an empirical band; unavailable horizons show no band."},"researchAgent":"VLSI ASTRIA"},{"id":"ddr5-16gb-die","label":"DDR5 16Gb Die","unit":"USD / chip","basis":"Government-reported fixed-price reference","sources":[{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-01","period":"2025-01","value":3.75,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-01:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-02","period":"2025-02","value":3.79,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-02:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-03","period":"2025-03","value":4.25,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-03:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-04","period":"2025-04","value":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-04:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-05","period":"2025-05","value":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-05:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-06","period":"2025-06","value":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-h1-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-06:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170672/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-07","period":"2025-07","value":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-07:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170869/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-08","period":"2025-08","value":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-jul-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-08:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/170869/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-09","period":"2025-09","value":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-sep-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-09:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171048/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-10","period":"2025-10","value":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-oct-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-10:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171276/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-11","period":"2025-11","value":19.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-oct-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-11:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171276/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2025-12","period":"2025-12","value":20.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","revisionId":"motir-ict-dec-2025:ddr5-16gb-die:2025-12:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/171403/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-01","period":"2026-01","value":28.5,"publicationDate":"2026-02-13","revisionId":"chungbuk-ict-jan-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-01:v1","sourceUrl":"https://cbgms.chungbuk.go.kr/info/biznewsView.jsp?seqno=NjM1MjM%3D"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-02","period":"2026-02","value":30,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","revisionId":"pyeongtaek-customs-feb-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-02:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.customs.go.kr/pyeongtaek/na/ntt/selectNttInfo.do?mi=4074&bbsId=1541&nttSn=10158684&nttSnUrl=72f26dc09740503ee67f813b41dcf4d9"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-03","period":"2026-03","value":31,"publicationDate":"2026-04-16","revisionId":"pyeongtaek-customs-mar-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-03:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.customs.go.kr/pyeongtaek/na/ntt/selectNttInfo.do?mi=4074&bbsId=1541&nttSn=10164404&nttSnUrl=a771ad26af5046733495e68624870587"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-04","period":"2026-04","value":35,"publicationDate":"2026-05-19","revisionId":"pyeongtaek-customs-apr-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-04:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.customs.go.kr/pyeongtaek/na/ntt/selectNttInfo.do?mi=4074&bbsId=1541&nttSn=10164405&nttSnUrl=394e3b5db7db3f4b722f91720276b49b"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-05","period":"2026-05","value":37.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","revisionId":"motir-trade-jul-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-05:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172077/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-06","period":"2026-06","value":40,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","revisionId":"motir-trade-jul-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-06:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172077/view"},{"observationId":"ddr5-16gb-die-2026-07","period":"2026-07","value":45,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","revisionId":"motir-trade-jul-2026:ddr5-16gb-die:2026-07:v1","sourceUrl":"https://www.motir.go.kr/kor/article/ATCL3f49a5a8c/172077/view"}],"result":{"state":"available","reason":null,"modelVersion":"semiconductor-estimation-1","horizon":3,"grain":"month","inputs":{"observationCount":19,"firstPeriod":"2025-01","lastPeriod":"2026-07","asOf":"2026-09-09T16:22:30.054Z","maxStalenessDays":93,"minimumObservationCount":12,"minimumHoldoutCount":6},"metrics":[{"model":"no_change","holdoutCount":6,"mae":6.366666666666667,"rmse":6.869497798238238,"mapePercent":17.512075439494794},{"model":"recent_log_drift","holdoutCount":6,"mae":7.371796751950007,"rmse":10.705939311509045,"mapePercent":22.80748452632075},{"model":"damped_log_trend","holdoutCount":6,"mae":6.427412485142924,"rmse":8.469892225265315,"mapePercent":19.245864484948907}],"evaluation":"publication_lag_aware_latest_vintage","selectionEvidence":"chronological-model-selection-on-training-holdouts-not-independent-validation","selectedModel":"no_change","forecasts":[{"period":"2026-08","value":45,"lower":null,"upper":null,"status":"nowcast_completed_missing_period","bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_horizon_residuals","horizonResidualCount":0},{"period":"2026-09","value":45,"lower":48.5,"upper":53.12,"status":"nowcast_current_period","bandState":"available_limited_sample","horizonResidualCount":5},{"period":"2026-10","value":45,"lower":null,"upper":null,"status":"forecast","bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_horizon_residuals","horizonResidualCount":1}],"bandState":"unavailable_insufficient_residuals","caveat":"Backtest and final training exclude observations not published by the applicable date, but source values are latest vintages and may contain later revisions. Model selection uses chronological training holdouts and is not independent validation. Each forecast horizon needs at least five matching horizon residuals for an empirical band; unavailable horizons show no band."},"researchAgent":"VLSI ASTRIA"},{"id":"ddr3-4gb-annual-spot","label":"DDR3 4Gb annual spot reference","unit":"USD / chip","basis":"Official annual-average spot-price reference","sources":[{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2013","period":"2013","value":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2013","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2014","period":"2014","value":4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2014","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2015","period":"2015","value":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2015","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2016","period":"2016","value":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2016","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2017","period":"2017","value":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2017","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2018","period":"2018","value":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2018","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2019","period":"2019","value":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2019","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2020","period":"2020","value":1.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2020","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2021","period":"2021","value":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2021","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2022","period":"2022","value":2.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2022","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2023","period":"2023","value":1.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2023","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2024","period":"2024","value":1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2024","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"},{"observationId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2025","period":"2025","value":1.74,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","revisionId":"2025-12-31:dram-price:2025","sourceUrl":"https://www.data.go.kr/data/15051125/fileData.do"}],"result":{"state":"available","reason":null,"modelVersion":"semiconductor-estimation-1","horizon":1,"grain":"year","inputs":{"observationCount":13,"firstPeriod":"2013","lastPeriod":"2025","asOf":"2026-09-09T16:22:30.054Z","maxStalenessDays":550,"minimumObservationCount":12,"minimumHoldoutCount":6},"metrics":[{"model":"no_change","holdoutCount":6,"mae":0.69,"rmse":0.8152300288875527,"mapePercent":40.27908394287704},{"model":"recent_log_drift","holdoutCount":6,"mae":0.6857096104725414,"rmse":0.8281187403773712,"mapePercent":39.14596804724814},{"model":"damped_log_trend","holdoutCount":6,"mae":0.6857096104725414,"rmse":0.8281187403773712,"mapePercent":39.14596804724814}],"evaluation":"latest_vintage_retrospective","selectionEvidence":"chronological-model-selection-on-training-holdouts-not-independent-validation","selectedModel":"no_change","forecasts":[{"period":"2026","value":1.74,"lower":0.8400000000000001,"upper":2.76,"status":"nowcast_current_period","bandState":"available_limited_sample","horizonResidualCount":6}],"bandState":"available_limited_sample","caveat":"Backtest uses the latest available vintage because publication dates were not supplied; it is retrospective, not a real-time backtest. Model selection uses chronological training holdouts and is not independent validation. Empirical 10th–90th percentile bands are horizon-specific but use fewer than ten matching residuals and are limited-sample indicators, not confidence guarantees."},"researchAgent":"VLSI ASTRIA"}]}